CNRP proclaims that if the National Election Committee (NEC) will issue the final results of the elections on September 8 as planned, bigger demonstration will be called.
We will see ...Observers continue to present possible scenarios, from moderate to extreme.
Personally I think that deadlock will not be broken until both parties realized that they did not get the majority to have a mandate to lead the country. Yes they can get 68 or 63 seats in the 123 National Assembly seats. But what happen if they both boycott the functioning of that Assembly?
I propose that we should look at the numbers of the popular votes. You can that the law do not allow that! But the laws are made by people, if they agree, exceptions to policies are possible.
The Cambodian People Party got 3,235,969 or 48.79%
The Cambodian National rescue Party got 2,946,176 44.44%
The other 6 parties got 445,614 6.77%
100%
from a total of 6,627,759 people who had actually voted.
There were a total of 9,675,453 registered voters, an absentee rate of 31.62%.
Based on these numbers, the CPP would get 33.36%
CNRP 30.40%
Others 4.62%
The numbers show that there are 9.6 millions registered voters from the 14 millions + people of the Kingdom. Among them 6.62 millions only cast their ballots or 68.38%. This year the campaign was intense and there is no tragedies that forbid the number from voting. I expect to at least 90% of the registered voters to go to vote. I will come back to this.
From the preliminary numbers presented by NEC the CPP got 3.24 millions votes or some 33.36% to 2.95 millions to CNRP or 30.40%. All other considerations aside the winner should have 4.6 millions votes to claim majority to led the country. To make all things to add them we should look at the 3 millions registered who did not vote. CNRP claims that 1.2 millions of their members can not vote because of irregularities in the lists, the change in locations ... If we think that the 800,000 can't go vote because of personal reasons. i.e sickness, no means of transportation,etc., what happened to the other one million. Possibly because they are fed up with the system, or influenced by groups who preached their supporters to boycott this elections.
From the complaints, the Constitutional National Council found some irregularities. We will wait the final results. Anyway, for the sake of fairness, national reconciliation, and to break the deadlock, 3 options:
1. To recount in areas of irregularities, and new votes in those areas if needed.
2. New votes (after taking care of the lists, etc.) among the 2 major parties (CPP and CNRP) for the winner to get the absolute majority or close to 4.8 millions votes from the 9.6 millions registered voters.
3. New votes with new set of laws on the Elections.
I none were accepted, the others scenarios are negotiations or more protests with uncertain outcomes, happy or unhappy. "La raison de plus fort est toujours la meilleure" a French proverb says it, or "The reasoning of the stronger is always the better".
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