In the Nation from Bangkok:
Post-Cold War: emergence of tri-polar paradigm
Kavi Chongkittavorn
May 19, 2014 1:00 am
As never before seen, the
US, Russia and China - representing three different world views and
practices - are competing head-on in shaping the norms and values of
modern international system that has seen operating since the end of
World War II.
Never mind the old practices that has
kept the world at peace or at bay - sometimes at political precipice -
as currently we are living in the
real world where actions, tough actions in particular, speak loudest
and are likely to determine the outcome and overall situation on the
ground. The United Nations for the past six decades have done well to save the world but it is still unable to stop superpowers from engaging wars.
The US, which has been the superpower with a global reach militarily,
remained unchallenged for decades since the collapse of Berlin Wall. Now
that is no longer the case as the US is not in the prime position as
before. Washington's policies and words are not sacrosanct, yielding
instant international acknowledgements and later on served as templates
for the rest of the world. Washington's contrived leadership and
economic troubles at home have greatly diminished its strength and
effectiveness abroad.
Throughout the Cold War, the former Soviet Union challenged the US
predominance at all levels: ideologically, economically, technically and
socially. The US has been able to sustain its capitalism, democracy and
continued to reign in existing global systems. After the collapse of
former Soviet Union with several new countries surfaced - suddenly
friends become foes next to its huge frontiers. This feature has become
more dramatic in the world today as nations, big or small, are looking
for strategic partners that would fit into their present condition, even
though temporary.
Russia's diplomatic strength today rests on of President Vladimir
Putin's current leadership and energy-driven economy. Beyond that,
Russia wields counterbalancing forces against the US. His preponderance
to use
strong measures are quite appealing for some foreign leaders sharing
similar traits. Ironically, President Barack Obama is a more genteel
leader than his predecessors.
Strange as it may see, the current global system allows nations to
forge multiple and fragmented relationships. Some call them realpolitik
while others prefer to use the term multilateralism. It is no longer
either-or dichotomy - a pro-US or pro-Russia ally - that we are used to
during the Cold War. Such polarization - or rather put one's egg
in one
basket - does not help as less powerful or smaller nations want more
leeway and security guarantee amid fast changing strategic environment.
Their approaches are more issue-oriented and highly time-sensitive - at
time even sporadic.
As the US and Russia are wooing for new supports and strengthening old
links, China is being left unchallenged. Beijing has patiently
constructed the Sino[KC1]-centred regional order with a hope that one
day it would turn into an international norm. It has pursued a more
practical course befitting strategic thinking of developing countries
near and far. As the world's second economic power, China is bolder
these days asserting itself in global arenas. President Xi Jinping has
already consolidated his power at home to transform China into a strong
country with powerful military might couple with prosperous economy.
Under him, China is no longer passive.
As a new contender in the superpower's brinksmanship, China's views and
positions on global issues and international system are still find
wanting. While Beijing's support of UN-related activities and
endorsement have increased, other policies and perceptions are still
outside the international radars. Above all, China has yet to lead an
international endeavours with global appeals that go beyond
self-interest.
However, the prolonged US-Russia rivalries as demonstrated over the
Ukraine crisis would allow China to readjust and craft out its role and
influence in current fragile international system. Beijing would need a
new level of
engagement and commitment with the regional and international community.
For the time being, China's growing economic and political clouts have
yet to be tested in ways that would enhance stability and well-beings at
both regional and global levels. The disputes in South China Sea could
serve as a barometer of how China handles other equally sensitive
security issues. In case a solution is found that rests on an
international practice, China's prestige would be further enhanced.
In the near term, the US will remain the world's predominated power but
it has to share its influence with others, depending on issues and
timing. To many countries in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and
Central Asia, Russia is still a reliable partner. Moscow's unwavering
support of the Assad regime in Syria, the Iranian government over the
nuclear crisis and even
to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has won kudos.
In a similar vein, China's proactive and less passive policies have
also found new friends and strengthened old links. With its widespread
networks
of new
entrepreneurs - big and small - as well as networks of diaspora, China's
positions would have to be a moderated one overtimes. Indeed, China's
growing clout is not shaped by traditional power's configuration as
enjoyed
by the US or Russia.
In the new paradigm, the power's game is also about "mutual respect" between the power-that-be
and the
rest of the world. If the smaller and weaker states feel they have the
respect from their Brethren, they would be more willingness to cooperate
as the case may be. Today they have many choices as the big three have
inherit
strengths and weaknesses.
Flexible but firmed policies would win friends. This enables all
concerned countries to calibrate their positions before a decision is
being made.
VS: Now Russia is open to China with a multi-billion dollars business deal on natural gas.
How Vietnam (a long term client to Russia will deal with China on the Paracels Islands claims?
What happened to Cambodia?
